As Boomers Retire, Is A New Baby Boom Starting?
Kurt Brouwer December 27th, 2007
Very interesting juxtaposition of two stories [emphasis added below]:
US Braces For Baby Boom Retirement Wave (Breitbart, December 24, 2007)
‘The first of the vast US baby boom generation goes into retirement in January, setting off a demographic tidal wave with wide-ranging economic, political and social implications. Kathleen Casey-Kirschling, born on January 1, 1946, is acknowledged as the nation’s first baby boomer and the first to apply for social security benefits, for which she will be eligible in 2008.
The New Jersey grandmother is the first of an estimated 80 million Americans born between 1946 and 1964, a generation that led a social revolution in the 1960s and changed the fabric of most facets of society…’
US Fertility Rate Hits 35-Year-High, Stabilizing Population (Washington Post, December 21, 2007, Rob Stein)
‘For the first time in 35 years, the U.S. fertility rate has climbed high enough to sustain a stable population, solidifying the nation’s unique status among industrialized countries.
The overall fertility rate increased 2 percent between 2005 and 2006, nudging the average number of babies being born to each woman to 2.1, according to the latest federal statistics. That marks the first time since 1971 that the rate has reached a crucial benchmark of population growth: the ability of each generation to replace itself.
“It’s been quite a long time since we’ve had a rate this high,” said Stephanie J. Ventura of the National Center for Health Statistics. “It’s a milestone.”
While the rising fertility rate was unwelcome news to some environmentalists, the “replacement rate” is generally considered desirable by demographers and sociologists because it means a country is producing enough young people to replace and support aging workers without population growth being so high it taxes national resources.
“This is a noteworthy event,” said John Bongaarts of the Population Council, a New York-based think tank. “This is a sign of demographic health. Many countries would like to be at this level.”
Europe, Japan and other industrialized countries have long had fertility rates far below the replacement level, creating the prospect of labor shortages and loss of cultural identity as the proportion of native-born residents shrinks in relation to immigrant populations. In contrast, many developing nations’ birthrates far exceed the replacement rate, fueling poverty and social unrest.
“Over the long term you can’t have significant continued growth or continued decline,” said S. Philip Morgan, a Duke University sociologist. “Neither one is sustainable.”
The reasons for the unusual U.S. fertility rate are the focus of intense interest. Experts can only speculate, but they cite a complex mix of factors, including lower levels of birth control use than in other developed countries, widely held religious values that encourage childbearing, social conditions that make it easier for women to work and have families, and a growing Hispanic population…’
This is great news for many reasons. First, as the article points out, a growing population has many positive attributes. Second, as the baby boom retires over the next couple of decades, it will be very helpful to have a growing pool of young people to fill the gaps in government, industry and society in general. Though not of the order of magnitude of the original baby boom generation, this is still good. It is also interesting to speculate as to why this is happening.
Update: This post also appeared on the Facing Up Blog
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