Durable Goods Orders Up 5.2% In December
Kurt Brouwer January 29th, 2008
This report from the U.S. Census Bureau is good news. Although it is only one data point, it points to a reasonably good economic environment rather than a surefire recession as many have predicted [emphasis added]:
Highlights From The Advance Report On Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (U.S. Census Bureau, January 28, 2008)
New orders for manufactured durable goods in December increased $11.2 billion or 5.2 percent to $226.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This was the second consecutive monthly increase and followed 0.5 percent November increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 2.6 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 2.9 percent.
Shipments of manufactured durable goods in December, down four of the last five months, decreased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $212.6 billion. This followed a 0.2 percent November decrease.
Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in December, up thirty-one of the last thirty-two months, increased $20.0 billion or 2.5 percent to $808.6 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 1.2 percent November increase.
Inventories of manufactured durable goods in December, up five of the last six months, increased $3.5 billion or 1.1 percent to $320.7 billion. This was also at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.8 percent November increase.
The fact that new orders for durable goods are up sharply is very good news. The fact that inventories of such goods are up to a very high level is not so good. So, the news is mixed, but unless this increase in durable goods orders is just a blip, the certainty of a recession seems diminished. We’ll see.
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