http://www.fundmasteryblog.com/2008/08/15/economy-shows-signs-of-life/ Mutual Funds, Investing, Retirement, Economy, Personal Finance Wed, 07 Jan 2009 18:01:55 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.3.1 http://www.fundmasteryblog.com/2008/08/15/economy-shows-signs-of-life/#comment-1274 Kurt Brouwer Sat, 16 Aug 2008 20:19:18 +0000 http://www.fundmasteryblog.com/2008/08/15/economy-shows-signs-of-life/#comment-1274 I agree. The statistics on production look pretty decent considering everything we've been through. Assuming exports continue their strength and inventories rebound to a normal level in Q3 and Q4, then we could have some surprising GDP growth. I agree. The statistics on production look pretty decent considering everything we’ve been through. Assuming exports continue their strength and inventories rebound to a normal level in Q3 and Q4, then we could have some surprising GDP growth.

]]> http://www.fundmasteryblog.com/2008/08/15/economy-shows-signs-of-life/#comment-1273 Nontruths Sat, 16 Aug 2008 03:19:22 +0000 http://www.fundmasteryblog.com/2008/08/15/economy-shows-signs-of-life/#comment-1273 Actually, the industrial production numbers, coupled with the Empire State reading, were quite good. Over the last six months, industrial production has essentially been unchanged (-0.07% since the beginning of the year). Given that annual contractions during a recession hit bottom in the 3%-7% level, and currently industrial production has fallen just -0.14% since last year, the economy seems to be muddling along quite nicely. The industrial production statistic is one that the NBER uses in dating a recession - surely, it is not completely (or even close to completely) clear that the economy is contracting when industrial production, along with GDP, personal income, and retail sales, are posting positive but sometimes negligible monthly gains. Actually, the industrial production numbers, coupled with the Empire State reading, were quite good. Over the last six months, industrial production has essentially been unchanged (-0.07% since the beginning of the year). Given that annual contractions during a recession hit bottom in the 3%-7% level, and currently industrial production has fallen just -0.14% since last year, the economy seems to be muddling along quite nicely. The industrial production statistic is one that the NBER uses in dating a recession - surely, it is not completely (or even close to completely) clear that the economy is contracting when industrial production, along with GDP, personal income, and retail sales, are posting positive but sometimes negligible monthly gains.

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