Archive for August, 2008

Will Russian Bear Claw Down The Market?

Kurt Brouwer August 21st, 2008

My friend David Calloway — Editor-in-chief — at MarketWatch.com penned (or is it pixeled?) a timely column on the re-emergence of the irritable Russian bear [emphasis added]:

Escalating Russia Tensions Yet to Hit Market (MarketWatch, August 20, 2008, David Calloway)

One of oddest things about financial markets is how they can overreact to a rainstorm in the Gulf or the earnings forecast of a tech company yet completely overlook something like the beginnings of a global political crisis.

The Russian siege of Georgia provoked yawns on Wall Street in its first few days last week, overshadowed by the Olympics in China and a brief summer rally in financial stocks. Since South Ossetia isn’t sitting directly on a pool of oil, even crude futures failed to react, a reflection of the seriousness in the commodities sell-off of the past few weeks.

Even as the occupation of Georgia has escalated daily, to the point now where there is a standoff with NATO, global markets have largely stayed focused on the oil/financials trades, preferring to worry more about how the inevitable bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be structured instead of how our next president — and Europe’s leaders — will restructure their broken-down relations with a hostile Vladimir Putin.

…Make no mistake. The hostilities in Georgia might soon come to an end. But a major fault has opened up in relations between East and West that threatens not just global securities markets, but the economic health of Europe and the foreign policies of the major industrialized countries.

I think the fault or fault line analogy (as in earthquakes, tectonic plates and so on) is an apt one here.  The fault line between Russia and its neighbors has existed for hundreds of years.  This invasion of Georgia is like a moderate quake that reminds us of the existing fault line.

Switching metaphors a bit, Russia under Vlad Putin is like a grumpy Russian bear that has just come out of hibernation.  In this case, Russia has hibernated for years following the break-up of the Soviet Empire.  Now, like any bear just out of hibernation, Russia is hungry and irritable.  MarketWatch continues:

Fourteen days ago, relations with Russia were on nobody’s short-list of major issues for the U.S. presidential candidates. Now they threaten to overshadow the political conventions in the next two weeks, and the rest of the campaign. They’ve breathed new life into the McCain camp, and vaulted foreign policy into much more than a discussion of how soon we can bring the Iraq troops home.

It’s become a third front in foreign policy — after Iraq and Afghanistan — and suddenly Team Lame Duck of Bush, Cheney, Rice and Gates has been called off the bench of obscurity to deal with a Cold War nail-biter that could make the War on Terror seem like a summer garden party.

Markets cannot ignore this forever. Continued Russian aggression — right or wrong, depending how you look at Russia’s point of view — has the potential to impact emerging markets, established markets, debt markets, commodities markets, currencies markets and any other markets that cross borders…

The biggest impact of this emergence of the bear from hiding will come in Europe as Russia tries to bluster and threaten Europe into re-aligning with Russia.  Interestingly enough, the Eastern European countries — Poland, Ukraine, George — are much more stalwart on this than our long-standing allies France and Germany.

Core Inflation — Chart of the Day

Kurt Brouwer August 20th, 2008

carpe-diem-cpi.jpg

Source: Carpe Diem

California Taxes Going Up

Kurt Brouwer August 20th, 2008

Politicians and government bureaucrats seem to have missed out on Economics 101.  First, when the economy is hurting, raising taxes is a bad idea.  It did not work well just prior to the Great Depression when President Hoover raised income tax rates and it won’t work well now.

Now, at a time of economic contraction in California, the state, various counties and municipalities all want to raise taxes.  Californians already struggle under one of the highest tax burdens in the nation, but that load is likely to get heavier in light of the many tax increases being proposed.  In this LA Daily News piece [emphasis added], we see some of what is coming from the state and other taxing authorities:

California Tax Bites Get Hard To Digest (Los Angeles Daily News, August 17, 2008, Troy Anderson)

Stung by one of the highest state tax rates in the nation, Californians soon could be paying even more if officials and voters approve an array of new bond measures and taxes now under consideration.

Already on the November ballot are nearly $17 billion in statewide bonds, ranging from $9.95 billion for a high-speed passenger train system linking Southern California to the Bay Area, to $5 billion that would give motorists cash rebates for buying fuel-efficient vehicles.

Do we really need a $10 billion high speed train?  And, if so, does anyone believe it will cost $10 billion? Do we need to spend $5 billion to give motorists cash rebates to buy a Toyota Prius?  People who want a fuel efficient car will get one anyway, with or without the rebate. And, does anyone think car dealers won’t game the system by raising prices on the most popular models that qualify for the rebate?

The Los Angeles Unified School District is asking voters to approve a $7 billion bond measure for school construction and charters. The city of Los Angeles is seeking a $36-a-year parcel tax on all properties to fund anti-gang programs.

Los Angeles County’s Board of Supervisors is trying to place the Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s proposed half-percent sales-tax increase on the ballot.

The Los Angeles Community College District is seeking $3.5 billion in bonds for construction projects.

Meanwhile, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has proposed raising the statewide sales tax by 1 percent for three years.

“What’s happening is the taxpayers are under assault like we’ve never seen before,” said Jon Coupal, president of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association. “We have not seen an assault on taxpayers of this magnitude since the tax revolt leading up to Proposition 13 three decades ago.

“Our elected leadership, at both the state and local levels, is pushing California into the `coveted’ position of the highest-tax state in America. If that happens, it will be economic suicide for the Golden State.” Last week, the Washington, D.C.-based Tax Foundation released a report that found California’s state-local tax burden currently is the sixth-highest in the nation at 10.5 percent of per-capita incomes - costing Golden State taxpayers an average of $4,752 a year.

…But Paul McIntosh, executive director of the California State Association of Counties, said he doesn’t think the state’s tax burden is so high.

And with the economic downturn, a $15 billion state budget deficit and declines in anticipated revenue from property and sales taxes, McIntosh said elected officials statewide have no choice but to propose tax increases and bond measures to continue providing government services.

“The fact is the state has not invested in its infrastructure in the last 25 or 30 years, so California counties have stepped forward and proposed tax increases to fund specific transportation and flood-control projects,” McIntosh said.

It is indicative of the bureaucratic mindset that the only solution offered is always to raise taxes.  Do they ever consider cutting expenditures?  No.  Do they put money aside during good times — such as the 2003 - 2007?  No.

And, get this.  This gentleman claims we have not spent anything on infrastructure in the past 25-30 years.  Is that accurate?  I seem to recall all kinds of measures to improve highways, bridges, airports.  Don’t those count as infrastructure.  This piece from the Oakland Tribune in March, 2007, lists just some of the billions that have been spent in the name of infrastructure:

VOTERS back in November made it clear that California’s infrastructure needs fixing. In fact, voters backed $42.7 billion worth of public works bonds in the election.

Plans are under way to assign how these bonds should be used. Yet how many times in the past has public works money been wasted? The San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge reconstruction — a project with $5 billion in cost overruns — is an example…

I think it is fair to say Californians have spent plenty on infrastructure and on government in general.  But, whether we have gotten our money’s worth is a different question.  And, as this enlightened LA Supervisor pointed out in the LA Daily News piece, when we are having hard times, it just makes no sense to raise taxes:

“You cannot tax yourself into prosperity,” said Supervisor Michael D. Antonovich… “Taxes don’t create jobs. It’s not right to rob the working people of their hard-earned money they need to support themselves and their families.

“Instead of the government providing better services in giving taxpayers a fair return for their taxes, they want to tax people more. They should utilize the dollars they currently have for government services and programs.”

Since 1989, Los Angeles County voters and elected officials have approved more than 300 city, county, school district and special district bonds, assessments and parcel taxes.

In the last two decades, Los Angeles has received voter approval for bonds totaling $2.5 billion. Voters have approved $11.2 billion in LAUSD bonds and an additional $2.25 billion in Los Angeles Community College District bonds.

In the past six years, voters statewide have approved more than $42 billion in bonds for schools, water systems, the environment, stem-cell research and facilities.

“With all the budgetary problems going on and the increased pressures on local governments and school districts, debt is going to be an important issue to look at in the future,” said Glenn Byers, the county’s assistant treasurer and tax collector.

And taxpayer advocates warn of the potential toll.

“We pay taxes on our phone bills. We pay taxes on our electric bill. Parcel taxes, hotel taxes - just about everything you do seems to be taxed,” said California Taxpayers Association spokesman David Kline.

“Many of these taxes, taken individually, seem to be for good causes, but the cumulative effect is they have made California a very expensive state in which to live and do business. Voters have to take that into account when they have a chance to vote on some of these taxes and bonds.

“Something might be marketed as a great idea to fight gangs, expand public transportation or improve local schools, but they have to weigh the benefits against the long-term costs of paying all these additional taxes.”

I think we all know that many of these programs are created with good intentions and run by people of good will — generally.  But, no matter how good the cause, all these programs have to be paid for by taxpayers.  And, they raise the level of taxation permanently because government programs almost never go away.  State tax revenues have gone up very nicely over the past several years, unfortunately state spending has gone up much more.

And, the billions in bonds that have been floated for projects — no doubt worthwhile too — all have to be paid back.  Principal and interest.  In some cases the investment will be worth it, but in many cases, it will not.  Or, even if the project is a good one — such as the SF - Oakland Bay Bridge — cost overruns of $5 billion really add up.  As the late Illinois Senator, Everett Dirksen, quipped, “A billion here and a billion there.  After a while, it adds up to real money.”

I believe our political leaders are busily — again with good intentions in many cases — taking us down the line to a fiscal train wreck that will derail, if not destroy, the California Dream.

Brokers Kiss 200,000 Wealthy Clients Goodbye

Kurt Brouwer August 19th, 2008

In this piece, Joe Mysak of Bloomberg eviscerates Wall Street firms for walking away from auction-rate securities that they sold to thousands of clients.  Auction-rate securities are generally long-term, tax-exempt securities issued by municipalities and other issuers.

However, the magic came from the fact that brokerage firms held weekly or monthly auctions on these securities at which point rates were reset and investors could cash out.  Unfortunately, when the going got tough with these auctions, the brokers and bankers got out of the auction business, leaving thousands of their clients holding the bag.

Bankers Get Ready To Kiss 200,000 Clients Goodbye (Bloomberg, August 19, 2008, Joe Mysak)


The real numbers to look at in the auction-rate securities settlements are the ones in thousands, not billions.

By the time this is finished, and we’re probably months away from that, it looks like securities firms will return money to more than 200,000 individual investors.

And prepare to kiss them goodbye.

The ultimate loser in the auction-rate market collapse is going to be the U.S. securities brokerage business.

It is hard to see how the dealers involved are going to retain the customers they treated so cavalierly in February, when they decided to stop supporting auctions and blew up the market.

…Did they, the top officers of the securities companies, really think their customers could be separated from their money for any length of time and not complain?

Now, I cannot read the minds of the CEOs of large brokerage firms and big banks.  However, if history is any guide, these folks thought the gravy train would keep on chugging.  I’m sure it never occurred to them that this lucrative business could blow up.  And, once it did blow up, they must have panicked.

…At the same time, of course, the big securities firms advertised almost endlessly, emphasizing trust and reputation, and how they could take care of you if you were their client. Those ads showed a world of ease and comfort.

…Now those illusions are shattered. The thousands of investors who will be reunited with their cash are now disabused of the notion that a brokerage account means they have arrived…

Actually, problems surfaced with auction-rate securities a few years back as this New York Times piece spells out:

…In 2006, the Securities and Exchange Commission reached a $13 million settlement with 15 investment banks, and the industry agreed to impose a voluntary code of conduct for the auction-rate market.

The S.E.C. investigation centered on how bidding was conducted for these securities. Critics complain that investment banks have the upper hand in bidding because they can bid after seeing what other investors have bid…

Unfortunately, the regulatory problems did not slow the business down and investors continued to pour in the assets under the assumption that these were really solid, short-term investments.  But, once problems arose, the firms that sold these investments backed off until state securities regulators pushed them to make a deal.  Bloomberg continues:

…And they all know that, no matter how the companies themselves spin it, none of them would see a single dollar if the states hadn’t forced the firms to cough up the cash, and in the most humiliating way possible — by pulling back the curtain and revealing what was going on backstage. It wasn’t a pretty sight.

It is passing strange that this disaster occurred not with stocks or bonds, but with something called auction-rate securities, that were touted — securities professionals hate the word, which connotes a gamble — as safe cash-equivalents.

Or, as Merrill Lynch & Co. put it in December 2007, “We remain convinced that auction market preferreds of closed-end funds are a conservatives’ conservative security with respect to credit risk.”

The real question in the months ahead is where the wistful victims of the Great Auction Securities Freeze of 2008 are going to take their money. If I were a betting man, I’d bet that you are going to see a lot of that money going home to local banks, if not under mattresses…

On this final point, I hope these investors get the message and leave Wall Street for Main Street.  As the co-founder of an independent, fee-only financial advisory firm, it may seem self-serving, but I really I hope many of these clients will turn — not to banks or brokers — but to fee-only advisers.

By way of background, fee-only financial advisers are generally registered with the SEC as investment advisers.  As such, they are considered to be fiduciaries and are required by law to act in the client’s best interest.

Hopefully, some of these investors will figure out that they should be getting investment advice from an independent source.

New Home Sales vs. New Home Starts — Chart of the Day

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