Archive for the 'Geopolitics' Category

California Taxes Going Up

Kurt Brouwer August 20th, 2008

Politicians and government bureaucrats seem to have missed out on Economics 101.  First, when the economy is hurting, raising taxes is a bad idea.  It did not work well just prior to the Great Depression when President Hoover raised income tax rates and it won’t work well now.

Now, at a time of economic contraction in California, the state, various counties and municipalities all want to raise taxes.  Californians already struggle under one of the highest tax burdens in the nation, but that load is likely to get heavier in light of the many tax increases being proposed.  In this LA Daily News piece [emphasis added], we see some of what is coming from the state and other taxing authorities:

California Tax Bites Get Hard To Digest (Los Angeles Daily News, August 17, 2008, Troy Anderson)

Stung by one of the highest state tax rates in the nation, Californians soon could be paying even more if officials and voters approve an array of new bond measures and taxes now under consideration.

Already on the November ballot are nearly $17 billion in statewide bonds, ranging from $9.95 billion for a high-speed passenger train system linking Southern California to the Bay Area, to $5 billion that would give motorists cash rebates for buying fuel-efficient vehicles.

Do we really need a $10 billion high speed train?  And, if so, does anyone believe it will cost $10 billion? Do we need to spend $5 billion to give motorists cash rebates to buy a Toyota Prius?  People who want a fuel efficient car will get one anyway, with or without the rebate. And, does anyone think car dealers won’t game the system by raising prices on the most popular models that qualify for the rebate?

The Los Angeles Unified School District is asking voters to approve a $7 billion bond measure for school construction and charters. The city of Los Angeles is seeking a $36-a-year parcel tax on all properties to fund anti-gang programs.

Los Angeles County’s Board of Supervisors is trying to place the Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s proposed half-percent sales-tax increase on the ballot.

The Los Angeles Community College District is seeking $3.5 billion in bonds for construction projects.

Meanwhile, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has proposed raising the statewide sales tax by 1 percent for three years.

“What’s happening is the taxpayers are under assault like we’ve never seen before,” said Jon Coupal, president of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association. “We have not seen an assault on taxpayers of this magnitude since the tax revolt leading up to Proposition 13 three decades ago.

“Our elected leadership, at both the state and local levels, is pushing California into the `coveted’ position of the highest-tax state in America. If that happens, it will be economic suicide for the Golden State.” Last week, the Washington, D.C.-based Tax Foundation released a report that found California’s state-local tax burden currently is the sixth-highest in the nation at 10.5 percent of per-capita incomes - costing Golden State taxpayers an average of $4,752 a year.

…But Paul McIntosh, executive director of the California State Association of Counties, said he doesn’t think the state’s tax burden is so high.

And with the economic downturn, a $15 billion state budget deficit and declines in anticipated revenue from property and sales taxes, McIntosh said elected officials statewide have no choice but to propose tax increases and bond measures to continue providing government services.

“The fact is the state has not invested in its infrastructure in the last 25 or 30 years, so California counties have stepped forward and proposed tax increases to fund specific transportation and flood-control projects,” McIntosh said.

It is indicative of the bureaucratic mindset that the only solution offered is always to raise taxes.  Do they ever consider cutting expenditures?  No.  Do they put money aside during good times — such as the 2003 - 2007?  No.

And, get this.  This gentleman claims we have not spent anything on infrastructure in the past 25-30 years.  Is that accurate?  I seem to recall all kinds of measures to improve highways, bridges, airports.  Don’t those count as infrastructure.  This piece from the Oakland Tribune in March, 2007, lists just some of the billions that have been spent in the name of infrastructure:

VOTERS back in November made it clear that California’s infrastructure needs fixing. In fact, voters backed $42.7 billion worth of public works bonds in the election.

Plans are under way to assign how these bonds should be used. Yet how many times in the past has public works money been wasted? The San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge reconstruction — a project with $5 billion in cost overruns — is an example…

I think it is fair to say Californians have spent plenty on infrastructure and on government in general.  But, whether we have gotten our money’s worth is a different question.  And, as this enlightened LA Supervisor pointed out in the LA Daily News piece, when we are having hard times, it just makes no sense to raise taxes:

“You cannot tax yourself into prosperity,” said Supervisor Michael D. Antonovich… “Taxes don’t create jobs. It’s not right to rob the working people of their hard-earned money they need to support themselves and their families.

“Instead of the government providing better services in giving taxpayers a fair return for their taxes, they want to tax people more. They should utilize the dollars they currently have for government services and programs.”

Since 1989, Los Angeles County voters and elected officials have approved more than 300 city, county, school district and special district bonds, assessments and parcel taxes.

In the last two decades, Los Angeles has received voter approval for bonds totaling $2.5 billion. Voters have approved $11.2 billion in LAUSD bonds and an additional $2.25 billion in Los Angeles Community College District bonds.

In the past six years, voters statewide have approved more than $42 billion in bonds for schools, water systems, the environment, stem-cell research and facilities.

“With all the budgetary problems going on and the increased pressures on local governments and school districts, debt is going to be an important issue to look at in the future,” said Glenn Byers, the county’s assistant treasurer and tax collector.

And taxpayer advocates warn of the potential toll.

“We pay taxes on our phone bills. We pay taxes on our electric bill. Parcel taxes, hotel taxes - just about everything you do seems to be taxed,” said California Taxpayers Association spokesman David Kline.

“Many of these taxes, taken individually, seem to be for good causes, but the cumulative effect is they have made California a very expensive state in which to live and do business. Voters have to take that into account when they have a chance to vote on some of these taxes and bonds.

“Something might be marketed as a great idea to fight gangs, expand public transportation or improve local schools, but they have to weigh the benefits against the long-term costs of paying all these additional taxes.”

I think we all know that many of these programs are created with good intentions and run by people of good will — generally.  But, no matter how good the cause, all these programs have to be paid for by taxpayers.  And, they raise the level of taxation permanently because government programs almost never go away.  State tax revenues have gone up very nicely over the past several years, unfortunately state spending has gone up much more.

And, the billions in bonds that have been floated for projects — no doubt worthwhile too — all have to be paid back.  Principal and interest.  In some cases the investment will be worth it, but in many cases, it will not.  Or, even if the project is a good one — such as the SF - Oakland Bay Bridge — cost overruns of $5 billion really add up.  As the late Illinois Senator, Everett Dirksen, quipped, “A billion here and a billion there.  After a while, it adds up to real money.”

I believe our political leaders are busily — again with good intentions in many cases — taking us down the line to a fiscal train wreck that will derail, if not destroy, the California Dream.

The Path to Prosperity in America

Kurt Brouwer August 18th, 2008

american-magazine-featuredimage.jpg

Source: American

The Path to Prosperity (The American Magazine, August 7, 2008, Amela Karabegovic and Alan W. Dowd)


A new report confirms that low taxes, limited government, and flexible labor markets help to spur economic growth.

There are times when common sense is not so common. We may be in one of those times, which is why a new report on the power of economic freedom is so important.

Common sense tells us that low taxes, limited government, and flexible labor markets will help to spur economic growth. The Fraser Institute’s 2008 Economic Freedom of North America (EFNA) report offers a striking, yet unsurprising, picture of the benefits that flow from such policies.

In 2005, the most recent year for which data are available, Colorado, Georgia, Delaware, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Tennessee, and Texas-states with consistently strong records of promoting economic freedom-had an average per capita GDP that was more than $4,300 above the U.S. average. Their total growth from 1981 to 2005 was nearly 20 percentage points higher than the U.S. average.

In the latest EFNA index, Delaware is the top-ranked state or province in all of North America while Texas is tied for second with the Canadian province of Alberta. And for good reason: Delaware has the smallest size of government at the subnational level and ranks first among U.S. states on key taxation measures; Texas ranks first in labor-market freedom at the all-government level and has a state top marginal income tax rate of zero. Delaware and Texas also rank high in the categories of government transfers and subsidies as a percentage of GDP at the all-government level.

By comparison, West Virginia, Hawaii, Maine, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, and Rhode Island-states with low levels of economic freedom-had an average per capita GDP that was more than $4,300 below the U.S. average. Their total growth from 1981 to 2005 was 10 percentage points below the U.S. average.

Again, this is predictable: all of these states rank in the bottom half of the nation on taxation at the all-government level, labor-market freedom at the state/local level, and size of government at the all-government level.

The benefits of policies that promote economic freedom extend far beyond good scores and bragging rights. For instance, a one-point increase in economic freedom results in an increase of $32.13 in venture capital investment per capita; an increase in the number of patents by 8.2 per 100,000 population; and an increase of 4.2 percent in the growth of sole proprietorships.

The encouraging news is that most states have maintained a high degree of economic freedom and embraced polices that nurture economic freedom. In fact, the 2008 EFNA report found that 20 states have improved their level of economic freedom since the last report, with Louisiana experiencing the greatest increase…

This is a case where putting in a blogging acronym, RTWT [that is, read the whole thing] is not a cliche.  This article is important and well worth reading.  The principles outlined in the article work at the national level, the state level and the local level.

If you improve and enhance economic freedom, more prosperity ensues.  If you restrict economic freedom by increasing taxes or laying on more bureaucratic red tape, you inevitably reduce prosperity.  Our economy is resilient, yet it should also be clear that people gain prosperity faster in areas with more economic freedom.

I hope to return to this in more depth soon, but for now, RTWT.

Let Them Eat Cupcakes — Unemployed New York Bankers Change Careers

Kurt Brouwer August 16th, 2008

In an unintentionally funny article, Bloomberg [emphasis added], chronicles the travails of former highly-compensated mortgage bond traders, credit analysts and investment bankers in New York City.  These folks have been laid off in the wake of the subprime lending mess.

In one case, a former Bear Stearn’s financier is trying to make a living by selling cupcakes. Another is opening a budget hair salon.  Others are trying bartending. People in these types of positions made very high incomes creating mortgage-backed securities, or selling them or supposedly rating them. Now, the party is over and thousands of New York bankers, analysts and traders are scrambling to find a job and a new career.

Wall Street Jobless Try Cupcakes, Cheap Haircuts, Maybe Omaha (Bloomberg, August 15, 2008, Caroline Salas and Pierre Paulden)

Jessica Walter didn’t go to Harvard University to study cupcakes, but they’re what she does since losing her job as a vice president in credit strategy at Bear Stearns Cos.

“I want to teach kids to cook,” said Walter, 27, who founded Cupcake Kids! in New York to provide birthday parties and cooking classes for children. “The goal is to have this be my full-time job and make enough to live.”

Wall Street professionals are trying new careers, and fetching smaller salaries, amid the elimination of 76,670 investment jobs in the Americas following the global credit crunch that started a year ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

…About 33,300 finance jobs in New York City, or 7.1 percent of the 2007 peak, will be cut by June 2009, the Independent Budget Office, a non-partisan monitor of city finances, estimated in a May report.

…Half the people working in debt sales, trading or research in New York at the beginning of 2007 will have been fired by the end of this year or won’t get a bonus, Maloney estimated.

Jeff Salmon said job jitters prompted him to swap investing in asset-backed securities at Bank of New York Mellon Corp. for keeping the books at a hair salon. He and his wife, Olga, opened a Great Clips franchise in Mercerville, New Jersey, that offers $12 haircuts for both men and women.

“The structured finance market is so bleak right now, it makes sense for us to focus our energies on this,” said Salmon, 49. “It’s refreshing to not have to worry about whether I am going to have a job next week.” The couple plans to open another Great Clips in October.

…Traders and bankers who leave finance can expect to earn a fraction of what they used to make. Compensation for employees on Wall Street averaged $399,360 in 2007, compared with $62,390 for New York City jobs outside the securities industry, according to the state comptroller’s office.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which has cut 1,500 jobs, paid its employees an average of $661,490 last year, company filings show.

…”The most affected areas are structured finance, CDOs and mortgages,” said Arturo Cifuentes, managing director of New York-based R.W. Pressprich & Co., which trades derivatives. “Over one-third of jobs in this area are gone for the next five or ten years.’

…Moody’s, the oldest credit-ratings company, eliminated 275 jobs, or 7.5 percent of its workforce, to cope with a plunge in bond sales that sliced revenue from credit ratings.

..Joshua Perksy took to the streets after being laid off as an investment banker at Los Angeles-based Houlihan Lokey. He strolled New York’s Park Avenue in June wearing a sandwich board reading “Experienced MIT Grad For Hire.”

“It’s been slow and frustrating,” said Persky, 48. “The only places to turn are hedge funds and boutique banks. I’ve never been unemployed this long.”

While his gambit generated some job leads, none has panned out so far, Persky said. He’s considering a move to Omaha, Nebraska.

Not long ago, they were Masters of the Universe making high six figure incomes, now they are unemployed or in a new and much less lucrative career.  No doubt many of them will bounce back pretty quickly, but it’s been rather sobering I’m sure.

It’s not the first time this has happened nor will it be the last.  The infamous ‘Go - Go’ Years on Wall Street were the first one I remember.  In that period, growth stocks were the thing and a number of obscure portfolio managers rode that wave until it crashed for good in the 1973-74 bear market.  If you want to read about that time, John Brooks’ book is good.

Personal Income Growing — Charts of the Day

Kurt Brouwer August 16th, 2008

bizzyblog-realpercapincomegrowth2001to2007.jpg

Source: Bizzyblog

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Source: Bizzyblog

For more on this, you can see Tom Blumer’s full post here.  If you want to check out the underlying data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, go here for an interactive table that allows you to select and study the data for any selection of years. 

Economy Shows Signs of Life

Kurt Brouwer August 15th, 2008

This Bloomberg piece [emphasis added] suggests that the economy is perking up a bit:

U.S. Economy: Consumer Sentiment, New York Manufacturing Gain (Bloomberg, August 15, 2008, Timothy R. Homan and Courtney Schlisserman)


Confidence among American consumers gained in August and manufacturing in New York grew the most since January as a slide in gasoline, oil, metals and grain prices eased cost pressures on households and companies.

The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment rose to 61.7, from 61.2 in July. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index climbed to 2.8, from minus 4.9 a month earlier. A separate Fed report showed industrial production increased in July, boosted by the end of a strike at an auto-parts supplier.

…”We’re a little less pessimistic than we were a month ago,” Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview. “But we still think consumer spending in real terms could be negative in the second half.”

…The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities has dropped 17 percent since the start of last month, a period when crude oil dropped 19 percent.

…Factories in New York were more optimistic about their prospects, according to the state’s Fed Bank report. The index measuring the outlook for six months from now jumped 34.6, the highest level this year, from 15.6 in July. Readings of zero are the dividing line between growth and contraction.

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