Archive for the 'healthcare' Category

Cutting Costs for Health Insurance

Kurt Brouwer August 24th, 2009

A quick perusal of the following chart should raise a few questions in your mind.  It shows annual premiums for a single person’s health insurance, ranked from the highest cost state to the lowest cost state [of the contiguous 48 states]:

carpe-diem-state-insurance.jpg

Source: Carpe Diem

These numbers are a bit dated, but I suspect the cost differential is at least as great now as it was in 2006-07.

Why is there such a disparity among the various states?  One obvious point is that costs to provide healthcare might be higher in Massachusetts than in some other states, but it is hard to believe costs provide much of the rationale for a difference of more than three times between Massachusetts and California.  Put another way, why is Massachusetts almost $4,000 per year higher than New York?

I think the answer lies in Massachusetts law, the so-called ‘RomneyCare’ legislation that requires that everyone in the state be covered by health insurance. The program was signed into law by Republican Mitt Romney when he was the governor.

From CNN, here is an example of state regulations in Massachusetts that undoubtedly act to increase the cost for insurance premiums:

‘Romney Care’ touted as a model for national healthcare reform (CNN, August 20, 2009, Jim Acosta and Ed Hornick)

…According to Brian Rosman of Health Care for All, a nonprofit based in Massachusetts, the requirements include:

  • Minimum benefits, such as preventive care, mental health care and hospitalization
  • A ban on gender discrimination
  • Limits on total out-of-pocket costs
  • A prohibition on pre-existing conditions as a qualifier for health coverage
  • No medical underwriting, so insurers can’t ask an individual about his or her health status in order to determine coverage
  • Limits on age restrictions, which means what is charged for an older individual cannot be more than double what is charged the youngest.
  • Analysts say “Romney care” is basically “Obama care” minus the public option…

    The Massachusetts program has many of the features we now see in H.R. 3200, the 1000+ page bill that is under consideration in Congress.  When you see what has happened in Massachusetts, it is not hard to understand why a similar law enacted nationally would be more expensive.  In fact, the Congressional Budget Office has found that the current House of Representatives legislation would increase government costs by at least $1 trillion.  This piece from Fox News gives the details of the CBO cost estimate [emphasis added]:

    Senate Panel Passes Health Bill, as CBO Predicts Cost Explosion in House Version (Fox News, July 15, 2009)

    For the House Democrats’ version, the CBO estimate tagged the 10-year cost of the plan at just over $1 trillion.

    “On a preliminary basis … the proposal’s provisions affecting health insurance coverage would result in a net increase in federal deficits of $1,042 billion for fiscal years 2010 through 2019,” the report said, citing additional expenses for Medicaid and other federal subsidies.

    One Democratic aide said the bill would add up to $1.5 trillion over the next decade. But the CBO estimate showed that even if the price tag holds to $1 trillion, more than 80 percent of the costs will hit in the last five years. This indicates that after 2019, taxpayers could be hit with a rising tidal wave of health care expenses resulting from the shift in health care coverage from the private to public sector…

    The rise in deficits of a $1 trillion is a low ball estimate I think because the costs of the proposal do not begin for a several years, so the actual deficits would be very high and rising as the 10 years ends.

    Consider car insurance run the RomneyCare way…

    Consider what would happen if car insurance companies had to insure cars the way RomneyCare requires people be insured.  There would be insurance coverage for every little thing such as windshield wipers, oil changes and so on.  Then, add to it a requirement that insurance companies could not inquire about drivers with a history of DUIs.  Add on a prohibition against charging the highest risk drivers any more than two times the premiums for lowest risk drivers.  Limit the deductible for drivers and finally, prohibit the car insurer for checking on pre-existing claims from incidents that occurred before coverage ensued.  Yikes.

    Would insurance companies feel compelled to raise premiums across the board?  Of course.  If you cannot charge high risk drivers much more than low risk drivers, then you have to raise the rates for everyone.  There really is no mystery here.

    Health Insurance Competition 

    Whatever the reason for the difference among the states for health insurance premiums, it is obvious that the differences are extreme.  Also, that state regulations play an important role in defining minimum coverages and further defining the package of benefits covered.  Essentially, many states have a ‘one size fits all’ system of regulating the type of coverage allowed.

    And, this situation is giving rise to fairly simple ideas to reduce costs and that is, to increase competition by dropping state barriers to entry for insurance companies.  The Wall Street Journal had this to say on the topic [emphasis added]:

    The Competition Cure (Wall Street Journal, August 24, 2009)

    …It is no secret that this page is all for competition in the marketplace. If indeed that’s the goal, allow us to suggest a path to it that will be a lot easier than erecting the impossible dream of a public option: Let insurance companies sell health-care policies across state lines.

    Devon Herrick, a senior fellow with the National Center for Policy Analysis who has written extensively on this subject, notes that insurance companies operating nationally would compete nationally. The reason a Kentucky plan written for an individual from New Jersey would save the New Jerseyan money is that New Jersey is highly regulated, with costly mandated benefits and guaranteed access to insurance.

    Affordability would improve if consumers could escape states where each policy is loaded with mandates. “If consumers do not want expensive ‘Cadillac’ health plans that pay for acupuncture, fertility treatments or hairpieces, they could buy from insurers in a state that does not mandate such benefits,” Mr. Herrick has written…

    As we saw above, RomneyCare in Massachusetts is loaded with very costly requirements and that has translated into much higher premiums and much higher rates of growth in premiums.  If the state wanted to ensure that all residents would have insurance, they could do so, while allowing individuals and families or even companies to purchase the type of coverage they need than than a ‘one size fits all’ policy.

    Consider state-sponsored college funding or 529 plans

    One example of how this might work comes from the world of state-sponsored college funding or 529 plans.  Each state has authorized its own version, but residents are free to use any state’s plan.  So, a resident of California might have a Utah 529 plan or an Ohio 529 plan. So, a given state has the right to set up its own plan, but residents are free to choose other plans than those of the state in which they reside.

    There is no reason why a state should mandate a very expensive type of health insurance coverage for all state residents.  Why not simply allow residents of a given state to buy health insurance from any large, national insurance carrier.  If we did so, I predict health insurance premiums would begin trending down, not up.

    See also:

    Government: It ain’t broke yet, but just wait

    Health Care Costs & Consumer Spending

    U.S. Life Expectancy Rate Up

    Kurt Brouwer August 20th, 2009

    Interesting news from the Center for Disease Control.  Life expectancy in the U.S. has risen.

    One important point on using such statistics comparatively among countries is that conditions in those countries are not always equal.  For example, in the U.S., we have a much higher rate of fatalities from car accidents, murders and drug-related killings than most other industrialized countries.

    For example, Americans typically drive much longer distances than many in Japan or Europe and that extra driving leads to more accidents and fatalities. Also, accidents and murders affect younger people and hold down our life expectancy averages.

    I recently saw a report that U.S. life expectancy would be one of the highest in the world, if we adjusted the statistics for these things. In any case, this is good news [emphasis added]:

    CDC says life expectancy in U.S. up, deaths not (Yahoo / AP, August 19, 2009, Mike Stobbe)

    U.S. life expectancy has risen to a new high, now standing at nearly 78 years, the government reported Wednesday. The increase is due mainly to falling death rates in almost all the leading causes of death. The average life expectancy for babies born in 2007 is nearly three months greater than for children born in 2006.

    The new U.S. data is a preliminary report based on about 90 percent of the death certificates collected in 2007. It comes from the National Center for Health Statistics, part of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

    Life expectancy is the period a child born in 2007 is expected to live, assuming mortality trends stay constant. U.S. life expectancy has grown nearly one and a half years in the past decade, and is now at an all-time-high.

    Last year, the CDC said U.S. life expectancy had inched above 78 years. But the CDC recently changed how it calculates life expectancy, which caused a small shrink in estimates to below 78.

    The United States continues to lag behind about 30 other countries in estimated life span. Japan has the longest life expectancy — 83 years for children born in 2007, according to the World Health Organization.

    The CDC report found that the number of deaths and the overall death rate dropped from 2006 — to about 760 deaths per 100,000 people from about 776. The death rate has been falling for eight straight years, and is half of what it was 60 years ago.

    Heart disease and cancer together are the cause of nearly half of U.S. fatalities. The death rate from heart disease dropped nearly 5 percent in 2007, and the cancer death rate fell nearly 2 percent, according to the report.

    The HIV death rate dropped 10 percent, the biggest one-year decline in 10 years.

    “It was kind of a surprise to see it go down so much” and it’s unclear if it will be a one-year fluke or not, said Bob Anderson, chief of the agency’s mortality statistics branch.

    The diabetes death rate fell about 4 percent, allowing Alzheimer’s disease to surpass diabetes to become the sixth leading cause of death. Alzheimer’s has been climbing the death chart in recent years, though that may be partly because declines in other causes are enabling more people to live long enough to die from Alzheimer’s, Anderson said…

    Among the top 15 causes of death as reported by the CDC, #5 was accidents, #11 was suicides and #15 was homicides.

    For the full report from the CDC, go here.

    Hat tip: BrothersJudd

    Government: It ain’t broke yet, but just wait

    Kurt Brouwer August 19th, 2009

    This poster from a rally on healthcare makes a very good point that goes beyond the current healthcare debate:

    charliefoxtrot-hcreform-mcswtj.jpg

    Source: CharlieFoxtrotBlog

    There are plenty of potential positions one could take on the issue of healthcare reform.  We’ve had excellent discussions and comments on this issue from people on all sides (see Healthcare: An Ounce of Prevention).  However, this poster makes an excellent point about the state of our government:

    Government: it ain’t broken yet, but just wait…

    Government finance is in tatters at the state, Federal and local levels.  The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) put out its estimate of the Federal budget deficit for the current year (10 months) through July [emphasis added]:

    Monthly Budget Review (Congressional Budget Office, August 6, 2009)

    The federal budget deficit for the first 10 months of fiscal year 2009 reached $1.3 trillion, CBO estimates, close to $880 billion greater than the deficit recorded through July 2008. Outlays rose by almost $530 billion (or 21 percent) and revenues fell by more than $350 billion (or 17 percent) compared with the amounts recorded during the same period last year. The estimated deficit reflects outlays of $169 billion for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), recorded on a net-present-value basis adjusted for market risk…

    The budget deficit last year was high, but we are beating it by $880 billion.  Oh joy.

    And, in terms of large Federal entitlement programs, they are all in deep financial trouble despite the fact that we have significantly ramped up spending on these programs:

    This information is based on data from the government’s Office of Management and Budget.  It is from a comprehensive report — Citizens’ Guide 2009 — on government spending and debt put out by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation. It is well worth reading.

    These pie charts demonstrate the change in Federal government spending over the past 40 years.

    pgpf-willisms-4-09-federalspending68to08.gif

    Source: Peter G. Peterson Foundation

    Today, Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security spending constitutes 41% of Federal outlays.  Forty years ago, those programs only constituted 17% of Federal spending.  Theoretically, those programs should be awash in cash, yet they are all underfunded and, essentially, broke.

    Medicare is probably our biggest single budget busting program and it is currently underfunded to an enormous degree.  So, if we have such great potential solutions for cutting healthcare costs, what’s to stop us from addressing Medicare underfunding?

    Why not fix Medicare first? 

    I am not the first to make this point, but I have written this before: if reform is so easy and logical and beneficial, why not fix Medicare first? It’s already underfunded and actuarially broke, so let’s get going on that:

    This sentence from Virginia Postrel really struck me as one of those irrefutably obvious points:

    If simple and decisive government action can curb costs in health care, as Obamacare advocates claim, why not begin by fixing Medicare before rushing in with sweeping changes to the entire system?…

    We often hear how efficient Medicare is and how low its administrative costs are.  But then, we hear about the vast underfunding of Medicare to the tune of double-digit trillions of dollars.  So, let’s fix Medicare.

    Or, we could fix Social Security

    My friend Allan Sloan, Senior Editor At Large at Fortune Magazine, made this point in a lengthy piece on Social Security [emphasis added]:

    …Perhaps as early as this year, Social Security, at $680 billion the nation’s biggest social program, will be transformed from an operation that’s helped finance the rest of the government for 25 years into a cash drain that will need money from the Treasury. In other words, a bailout…

    His piece is well worth reading in its entirety.  I also intend to do a longer post on it, but for now just look at this chart that accompanied Allan’s piece:

    fortune-chart_soc_security_bars2.gif

    Source: Fortune / Social Security

    But, it’s not just Medicare or Social Security, the Post Office is broke too

    This report from the GAO tells the tale about another government agency that is broke [emphasis added]:

    Restructuring the U.S. Post Office to Achieve Sustainable Financial Viability (Government Accounting Office, July 2009)

    GAO is adding the U.S. Postal Service’s (USPS) financial condition to the list of high-risk areas needing attention by Congress and the executive branch to achieve broad-based transformation. Amid challenging economic conditions and a changing business environment, USPS is facing a deteriorating financial situation in which it does not expect to cover its expenses and financial obligations in fiscal years 2009 and 2010. This year, USPS expects to increase its year-end debt to $10.2 billion and incur a cash shortfall of about $1 billion…

    The GAO reports the cash shortfall as about $1 billion, but to reach that number it drily noted (in a footnote) that it had assumed unspecified ’savings’ of $5.9 billion.   Those savings have not yet been realized, so the shortfall could be much higher.

    Then there is Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, GM and even Cash for Clunkers

    I have posted on these as well (see Bankruptcies, Bubbles & Bailouts and Collateral Damage From Cash for Clunkers).  And, that’s not to mention GM  (see GM Means General Malaise). Or, even the jets for Congress fiasco (see Congressional Cash for Clunkers).

    A sordid tale of mismanagement at the highest levels

    All in all, it’s a sordid tale of fiscal mismanagement at the highest levels of our government.  As the picture at the top of this post points out, Federal programs and departments are busted. Rather than taking on ambitious new programs, Congress should spend its time fixing the broken programs we already have in place.

    Finally, what credible evidence do we have that the Feds can run national healthcare — an even bigger program than Medicare or Social Security — without putting us deeper into the hole?

    Healthcare Employment Growing

    Kurt Brouwer August 17th, 2009

    I had not really thought about employment in healthcare-related industries and professions too much lately, but it does seem to be one of the few bright spots in our employment picture.

    carpe-diem-healthcareemp2.jpg

    Source: Carpe Diem

    Health Care Costs & Consumer Spending

    Kurt Brouwer August 17th, 2009

    Two excellent charts from Calculated Risk.  The first chart shows three different government-tracked measures of rising healthcare costs.  Most people, upon seeing this chart, would take the position that rising healthcare expenditures are a serious problem and we need to do something drastic about them.

    calculated-risk-healthcarepercentofgdp.jpg

    Source: Calculated Risk

    The next chart displays a category called Personal Consumption Expenditures, with and without healthcare costs.

    calculated-risk-healthcarepce.jpg

    Source: Calculated Risk

    Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) are tracked by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).  PCE covers spending on goods and services for individual consumption.  As such, it covers what we generally think of as consumer spending.

    As you can see from the second chart, PCE without healthcare spending actually declined slightly — as a percentage of GDP — in the period from 1960 through 2008.  However, healthcare expenditures went up quite a bit such that overal PCE increased over the 48-year span.

    My takeaway from this is that the problem is not so acute as the first chart would indicate.  In other words, most of our consumer cost structure has actually diminished over this time period.  However, healthcare expenditures are making up the difference.

    And, healthcare expenditures are likely to ramp up even further as the ‘baby boomer’ generation ages. So, we need to address this issue, but we do not need to do so in a rush.  In fact, I think we need to explore many different ways of improving health and the definition and delivery of healthcare itself.

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